3 potential market outcomes of the July tariff deadline
Upcoming tariff policy decisions could reshape global trade, as well as risk sentiment.
- We anticipate three potential outcomes on or before July 8, with extensions of the previously announced pauses on tariff implementation appearing the most likely of the three.
- A deal for a “universal” tariff could be the most positive scenario in terms of a market impact, although we’re not hearing much buzz about this possibility.
- Some tariff uncertainty appears likely into the later half of 2025 and possibly beyond.

Next steps to consider
Fidelity Portfolio Quick Check®
Analyze, compare, and optimize your investment strategy in minutes with our free on-demand digital portfolio analysis tool.
Learn more
Asset Allocation Research Team (AART)
Access economic, fundamental, and quantitative analysis from our Asset Allocation Research Team.
Learn more
Related insights
View all


For important information, see the full linked content.