Commentary

First Quarter 2026 Quarterly Business Cycle Update

International policies support global growth and the markets

By: Fidelity Asset Allocation Research Team

Updated: 1/15/2026

Key Takeaways

The U.S. demonstrated a mix of cycle dynamics, with solid mid-cycle activity and some areas of continued weakness in housing and labor markets.
The global business cycle remains constructive, with U.S. monetary and fiscal easing likely to continue in 2026.
The near-term outlook appears favorable for continued economic and business expansion.

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Quarterly Business Cycle Update (Q1 2026)

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