Commentary

Third Quarter 2026 Quarterly Business Cycle Update

The global business cycle remains in an unsynchronized expansion.

By: Fidelity Asset Allocation Research Team

Updated: 7/17/2026

Key Takeaways

Positive earnings momentum, improving labor dynamics, easing credit conditions, and accommodative policy supported the fundamental backdrop
Growing demand for labor and a slowing supply of workers from tighter immigration policy kept the unemployment rate subdued
Consumer inflation rose, as a steady multiyear decline in shelter and services costs showed signs of reacceleration.

Get the full white paper

Quarterly Business Cycle Update (Q3 2026)

Next steps to consider

Advanced Modeling & Rebalancing

Take your portfolio strategies to the next level with our flexible, innovative portfolio construction and management tool.

Learn more

Investments & portfolio construction

Manage client portfolios with greater efficiency and impact with our broad universe of portfolio construction solutions and investment products.

Learn more

Related insights

View all

Third Quarter 2026 Quarterly Market Update

Fidelity's Asset Allocation Research Team (AART) examines themes in global financial markets and presents its investment outlook in this Q3 2026 quarterly market update.

Quarterly Market Update

Fidelity's Asset Allocation Research Team (AART) examines major themes in the global financial markets and presents its investment outlook for the quarter.

Second Quarter 2026 Quarterly Market Update

Fidelity's Asset Allocation Research Team (AART) examines themes in global financial markets and presents its investment outlook in this Q2 2026 quarterly market update.

For important information, see the full linked content.

1082603.10

ACEC100CDD424DEFB4EA6C5DF2128FC6

Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Unless otherwise expressly disclosed to you in writing, the information provided in this material is for educational purposes only. Any viewpoints expressed by Fidelity are not intended to be used as a primary basis for your investment decisions and are based on facts and circumstances at the point in time they are made and are not particular to you. Accordingly, nothing in this material constitutes impartial investment advice or advice in a fiduciary capacity, as defined or under the Employee Retirement Income Security Act of 1974 or the Internal Revenue Code of 1986, both as amended. Fidelity and its representatives may have a conflict of interest in the products or services mentioned in this material because they have a financial interest in the products or services and may receive compensation, directly or indirectly, in connection with the management, distribution, and/or servicing of these products or services, including Fidelity funds, certain third-party funds and products, and certain investment services. Before making any investment decisions, you should take into account all of the particular facts and circumstances of your or your client’s individual situation and reach out to an investment professional, if applicable.

The use of the term "advisor(s)" throughout this site shall refer to both investment advisors and broker-dealers as a collective term.