Business Cycle Update

Third Quarter 2024

Global business cycle in prolonged expansion

Major economies demonstrated persistent expansion amid improved global financial conditions and firmer manufacturing activity, even as the global environment became more varied. The U.S. and several large developing economies—India, Mexico, and Brazil— showed a rise in mid-cycle dynamics, while the U.S. still displayed significant late-cycle characteristics. Japan and Europe remained solidly late-cycle, Canada showed increasing recession risks, and China continued to struggle to emerge from its growth slump.

  • Activity rebounds (GDP, IP, employment, incomes)
  • Credit begins to grow
  • Profits grow rapidly
  • Policy still stimulative
  • Inventories low; sales improve
  • Growth peaking
  • Credit growth strong
  • Profit growth peaks
  • Policy neutral
  • Inventories, sales grow, equilibrium reached
  • Growth moderating
  • Credit tightens
  • Earnings under pressure
  • Policy contradictory
  • Inventories grow; sales growth falls
  • Falling activity
  • Credit drives up
  • Profits decline
  • Policy eases
  • Inventories; sales fall
BCU InflationaryPressuresRed =HighRelativePerformanceofEconomicallySensitiveAssetsGreen =Strong+EconomicGrowth-RECOVERYCONTRACTIONEXPANSION India, Mexico, Brazil U.S. Japan Australia, Korea Eurozone, UK Canada China

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