Commentary

AART Inflation Quarterly Q4 2025

Tariffs pass-through makes its way to consumers.

By: Collin Crownover

Updated: 10/28/2025

Key Takeaways

We estimate that the pass-through from tariffs has picked up steam, with tariff-sensitive categories, including apparel, vehicles, auto parts, TVs, and seafood up strongly month-over-month.
With the trade-policy landscape unsettled, it’s difficult to estimate how much more inflation remains in the pipeline.
Yet overall inflation is becoming slightly less “sticky,” with persistent measures of inflation declining, possibly leading to a lower inflation rate in 2026.
The market appears too sanguine on the inflation risks, which could justify positions in Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities relative to U.S. Treasuries.

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AART Inflation Quarterly Q4 2025

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