Commentary

Third Quarter 2025 Quarterly Business Cycle Update

U.S. economy remains robust, but tariff hikes could curtail future growth.

By: Fidelity Asset Allocation Research Team

Updated: 7/18/2025

Key Takeaways

The global cycle remains in a solid expansion, although it’s becoming unsynchronized across countries and more uncertain amid a variety of policy crosscurrents.
The U.S. demonstrated a wide mix of cycle dynamics, including both solid mid-cycle indicators as well as signs of softening activity.
China, Europe, and Canada displayed some hopeful indicators of improved cyclical momentum after prolonged soft patches, but further progress may depend on continued improvement in the economic policy backdrop.

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