Commentary

AART Inflation Quarterly Q2 2025

Goods inflation resurfaces with tariff hikes adding more pressure.

By: Collin Crownover

Updated: 4/14/2025

Key Takeaways

U.S. tariff hikes are likely to have a stagflationary impact on the U.S. economy (slower growth, higher inflation), and if all tariffs announced on April 2 are implemented, the direct impact may result in a 1% hit to gross domestic product growth and a 2% increase to inflation.
Our forecasts for the next year continue to anticipate sticky inflation of around 3%, with upside risk from tariff hikes.
Consumer inflation expectations have spiked to multidecade highs, which could make it easier for businesses to pass along higher costs and keep inflationary pressures percolating.

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AART Inflation Quarterly Q4 2025

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