Secular outlook for global growth: The next 20 years

The Fidelity Asset Allocation Research team’s secular gross domestic product (GDP) growth framework is a proprietary, dynamic approach, serving as a foundation for developing long-term capital market assumptions for asset class returns.

• Global growth is expected to be 2.1% over the next 20 years, down from 2.8% for the previous 20 years, with the United States averaging 1.8% annually and developing economies likely to register the highest GDP growth rates.
• Due to AI and other secular trends boosting capex and public investment, we believe there may be potential upside to our base-case productivity estimates in some countries.
• Asset allocation strategies that can be selective across a broad, global opportunity set may have the greatest potential to take advantage of future growth prospects.